An aerial shot of a white semi-truck driving along a two-lane highway.

North American market update: September 2026

Contents:

Key Odyssey Network Indicators

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

  • Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to ensure coverage

  • Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

  • Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really is not need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.

  • Spread delivery times across the day

  • Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate. Do not require equipment/assessorials that are not needed

Flexibility:

  • Offer flexible load times
  • Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

  • Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
  • Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

  • Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
  • Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

  • Maximize payload on trucks
  • Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
  • Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

  • Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

Economic Update

GDP Change
bar graph of the Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter
  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised).
  • The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports.
  • Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Unemployment
graph of civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted - September 2024 - 2026

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm

  • Both non-farm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
  • Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.
  • This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys.
    • The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
    • The establishment survey measures non-farm employment, hours, and earnings by industry.

Household Survey Data

  • Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent since March.
  • Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Black (7.0 percent) increased in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (14.5 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Asian (2.9 percent), or Hispanic (4.7 percent) showed little change over the month.
  • Both the labor force participation rate, at 61.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.2 percent, changed little in September. These measures showed little net change since January.
  • The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.5 million in September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
  • In September, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 5.8 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.

Establishment Survey Data

  • Total non-farm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), following an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.
  • Health care employment continued its upward trend in September (+17,000), but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+33,000). In September, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000) and in hospitals (+12,000), while nursing and residential care facilities lost jobs (-9,000).
  • Employment in construction changed little in September (+11,000). The industry had added an average of 10,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. In September, employment in non-residential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+12,000).
  • In September, financial activities employment was little changed (-7,000). Employment in financial activities is down by 129,000 since a recent peak in May 2025, with most of the job loss in insurance carriers and related activities (-90,000).
  • In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $37.81. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.60.
  • Employment also showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; professional and business services; social assistance; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government.
  • In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $37.81. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.0 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.60.

Manufactured Goods – New Orders

graph of manufacturers' new orders September 2025 - August 2026

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/current/index.html

Monthly Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders

(Released October 2nd, 2026)

  • New orders for manufactured goods in August, up two consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $663.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.8 percent July increase.
  • Shipments, down following eight consecutive monthly increases, decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $658.6 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent July increase.
  • Unfilled orders, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, increased $9.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,609.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent July increase.
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.87, up from 6.81 in July. Inventories, up eleven consecutive months, increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $972.4 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent July increase.
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.48, up from 1.47 in July.

Transportation Update

Fuel
Chart of On-highway diesel fuel prices for September 2026

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/?os=frefapp

The national average price of diesel for the week of September 28 stood at $6.38 per gallon, an increase of 0.79 cents from four weeks prior at the end of August and up $2.62 from a year ago.

Transportation Capacity
Graph of Transportation Capacity from September 2024 - September 2026
Source: CSCMP LMI
  • The Transportation Capacity Index dropped 5.6 points to 34.4 percent in September 2026.
  • The Transportation Capacity index continues to indicate contraction for the tenth consecutive month. While the Upstream Transportation Capacity index is at 35.3, the Downstream index is at 30.8, but the difference is not statistically significant. As such, it can be concluded that the contraction observed in Transportation Capacity remains relatively uniformly distributed across the US economy.
  • The future Transportation Capacity index also decreased 5.1 points and now indicates 37.9, representing continued expectations of capacity contraction for the next 12 months. While the future Upstream index is at 34.8, the Downstream Transportation Capacity index is at 42.6, but the difference is not statistically significant.
  • As such, expectations of contraction in future Transportation Capacity are present are distributed relatively uniformly across the supply chains.
Transportation Prices
Graph of Transportation Prices from September 2024 - September 2026
Source: CSCMP LMI

September 2026 Logistics Managers’ Index – LOGISTICS MANAGERS’ INDEX

  • The Transportation Prices Index increased 2.7 points from the previous reading and recorded 92.7in September 2026. With this increase the Transportation Prices Index has continued its recent upward trend and continues its upward push towards historically high levels.
  • The Upstream Transportation Prices Index is at 91.9, the Downstream index is at 94.2, but the difference is not statistically significant. As such, it can be concluded that the inflationary pressure on Transportation Prices remains extremely strong across the US economy, both Downstream than Upstream.
Cass Freight & Truckload Index

Uncertainty Reigns

Table of cass freight and truckload index from September 2026
SA = Seasonally Adjusted
chart of Cass Truckload Linehaul Index from January 2016 - September 2026

Cass Transportation Index Report | September 2026 | Cass Information Systems

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials.

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose to 154.8 in September, up 0.6% m/m and up 10.1% y/y.

  • The sequential increase is slower than the 0.9% YTD average, likely because spot rates retrenched somewhat and contract rates slowed with few bids this time of year.
  • Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher.
  • This index reflects the whole for-hire truckload market, both spot and contract rates.

 

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025. In 2026, the index is on pace for a 7% increase.

Truck Tonnage Index

U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics

graph of truck tonnage index from September 2025 - July 2026
Updated on Sept 1st, 2026, from the St Louis Federal Reserve, sourcing the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 0.8% in September

From the American Trucking Associations (ATA) on October 20, 2026:

  • In September, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 114, up from 113.1 in August. The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, was unchanged from the same month in 2025, which was better than August’s 1.3% decline. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2025, tonnage is up 0.9% due to robust year-over-year increases from February through April. 
  • The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 114.8 in September, 1.4% below August’s reading of 116.4.
  • Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 72.7% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 11.27 billion tons of freight in 2024.  Motor carriers collected $906 billion, or 76.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
  • Both indices are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to traditional spot market freight. The tonnage index is calculated on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. This is a preliminary figure and subject to change in the final report issued around the 5th day of each month. The report includes month-to-month and year-over-year results, relevant economic comparisons, and key financial indicators.
Van Load-Truckload Ratio
graph of reefer load-to-truck ratio updated September 2026

Source: DAT Analytics | Van Demand and Capacity – DAT

Industry Trends
table of industry trends from September 2026

Source: DAT Analytics | https://www.dat.com/trendlines

National Spot Rates
graphic of the national spot rates for September 2026

Source: DAT Analytics | https://www.dat.com/trendlines-legacy

The chart above depicts national average rates (including fuel surcharges) in the past 13 months, derived from DAT RateView.

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