TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

May 2023 Logistics Manager’s Index Report®

LMI® at 47.3

• Growth is INCREASING AT AN INCREASING RATE for: Warehousing Capacity
• Growth is INCREASING AT AN DECREASING RATE for: Inventory Costs, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, and Transportation Capacity
• Inventory Levels, Transportation Utilization, and Transportation Prices ARE DECREASING

For the third consecutive month the Logistics Managers’ Index has reached a new all-time low and for the first time in its 6.5-year history it has moved into contraction territory, reading in at 47.3 in May – down 3.6-points from April’s reading of 50.9. The biggest factor behind this drop is the continued softening of the freight market. Transportation Utilization was down (-9.5) to 45.5, indicating contraction and signaling that shippers are using less of the available space than they did a month ago. Relatedly, Transportation Prices are down (-8.9) to 27.9, which is the sharpest rate of contraction that has ever been observed for this metric. Taken together, the glut of available capacity has driven down utilization and prices. Reprieves are unlikely for carriers in the form of restocking inventories. Inventory Levels dropped (-1.5) to 49.5 which is the first-time inventories have been in contraction territory since February of 2020. It should be noted however that downstream retail inventories do continue to grow at a rate of 54.4, it is the upstream manufacturer and wholesaler inventories that are contracting (46.7) and bringing the overall number down. Warehousing Prices are still growing at a rate of 62.8 but are down (7.0) from last month and at their lowest level since June 2020. These factors are likely to continue to come down as more long-term contracts signed during 2020 and 2021 continue to come off the books.

The logistics industry’s LMI declined to 47.3 in May, down (-3.7) from April’s reading of 50.9. This is the first time in the 82 months of the LMI that the overall index has contracted. The rate of contraction was stronger for Upstream firms than for their Downstream counterparts at a rate of 45.3 to 48.2. While contraction is taking root throughout the supply chain, it continues to be sharper for the upstream players such as wholesalers, manufacturers, and the B2B carriers that connect them – likely because those entities are more impacted by uncertainty regarding interest rates. We also see that contraction was sharper in late May (44.1) than it was in the first half of the month (49.4), meaning that logistics activity declined more rapidly later in the month.

Source: CSCMP

DAT Freight Summary:

• Van Load to truck ratios increased by 5.6% week over week.
• Spot Rates increased 0.3% week over week.
• Spot Load Posts decreased by 1.0% week over week.

Source: DAT Freight & Analytics

Fuel

The Diesel national average stands at $3.801 for the week of 6/26.

• Fuel prices have declined for 20 out of the past 22 weeks.
• Fuel prices are down $0.821 since this year’s high of $4.622 on 1/30.
• Fuel prices are down $1.982 YoY.
• Bulk Fuel is currently at 26.5%.

Forecasts from the EIA

• Global oil markets.Following the OPEC+ announcement on June 4 to extend crude oil production cuts through 2024, the EIA forecast global oil inventories to fall slightly in each of the next five quarters. They expect these draws will put some upward pressure on crude oil prices, notably in late-2023 and early-2024. The EIA forecasts Brent crude oil spot price will average $79 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2023 (2H23) and $84/b in 2024.
• U.S. economy. The EIA forecast assumes U.S. GDP growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024, which is down from last month’s forecast of 1.6% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, based on the S&P Global macroeconomic model for the U.S. economy and the EIA energy price forecasts. Lower GDP growth reduces total U.S. energy consumption in both years compared with last month’s forecast.

Notable Forecast Changes The current STEO forecast was released June 6. The previous STEO forecast was released May 9. 2023 2024 Natural gas price at Henry hub (current forecast) (dollars per million British thermal units) $2.66 $3.42 Previous Forecast $2.91 $3.72 Percentage Change -8.8% -8.0% Dry natural gas production (current forecast) (billion cubic feet per day) 102.7 103.0 Previous Forecast 101.1 101.2 Percentage Change 1.6% 1.8% Brent spot average (current forecast) (dollars per barrel) $79.54 $83.51 Previous Forecast $78.65 $74.47 Percentage Change 1.1% 12.1%

 

OPEC crude oil production (current forecast) (million barrels per day) 33.5 33.8 Previous Forecast 33.8 34.4 Percentage Change -0.7% -1.8% U.S. crude oil production (current forecast) (million barrels per day) 12.6 12.8 Previous Forecast 12.5 12.7 Percentage Change 0.6% 0.7% Real gross domestic product (current forecast) (percentage) 1.3% 1.0% Previous Forecast 1.6% 1.8% Percentage Change -0.3 -0.7

 

Manufacturing production index (current forecast) (percentage) -1.2% 0.0% Previous Forecast -0.6% -1.6% Percentage Change -0.6 -1.6

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The truckload (and LTL) market appears to be nearing its bottom.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.4% in May after decreasing 1.7% in April. In May, the index equaled 115.4 (2015=100) compared with 112.7 in April.
• Compared with May 2022, the seasonally adjusted index decreased 1.3%, which was the third straight year-over-year decrease. In April, the index was down 3.4% from a year earlier.
• Tonnage continues to contract from year earlier levels as retail sales remain soft, manufacturing production continues to fall from a year ago, and housing starts contract from 2022 levels.

Source: American Trucking Association

According to Jason Miller, interim chairperson for the Department of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University, “It increasingly looks like the deflationary environment in the over-the-road dry van truckload sector as well as the less-than-truckload sector is winding down. In other words, the worst of the rate declines has passed…spot rates appear to have hit bottom, and consistent with this, the rate the PPI is declining is slowing. This makes sense since the PPI is primarily capturing contract freight. Assuming spot rates are at bottom, I would expect the PPI to cease declining by August.”

LTL

Yellow has sued the Teamsters Union for a breach of contract.

• Situation:
  • Yellow states that they could run out of cash as soon as mid-July.
  • Creditors could force the company into liquidation at that time.
  • Yellow reported a 100.8% operating ratio in Q1 2023.
  • Yellow has asked to defer health care and pension contributions for the next two months.
  • Yellow said the union doesn’t have the authority to stop a proposed modernization change in operations to create “One Yellow.”
  • The union claims that the changes would require too many utility positions, requiring drivers to work on the docks.
  • The union will honor the current contract which expires at the end of March 2024.
• How Odyssey is prepared in the event of disrupted service from Yellow:
  • Yellow accounts for less than 6% of all Odyssey LTL Freight Under Management.
  • Yellow plays a backup role on a majority of the route guides where they are present.
  • On every origin/lane where Yellow is routed as primary carrier there is a reputable carrier also on the route guide which would be willing to take on the volume.

ABF Freight Systems reached a tentative agreement with the Teamsters that goes into effect July 1.

• A $3.50 hourly wage increase (plus 8.75 cents per mile) for all regular employees.
• A 75-cent increase (plus 1.875 cents per mile) in each of the following four years of the deal.
• Cost-of-living increases.
• Martin Luther King Day is now a new additional paid holiday.
• Qualifying employees receive two additional paid holidays

Old Dominion continues to see a tonnage decrease.

• The LTL carrier is down 14.4% year over year (YoY) in May.
• This comes off a decline of 14.5% (YoY) in April.
• These declines extrapolate into a 2% decline over Q1 2023.
• ODFL typically sees an increase of 2-3% in April and May.
• ODFL also typically sees an additional 2% increase in June.

Saia reported a tonnage decrease as well.

• Tonnage down 2% YoY in May.
• This was a 4.2% decline in shipments.
• Tonnage was down 1.1% in April YoY.
• This was a 5.7% reduction in shipments.

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TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Fuel

Diesel national average now stands at $3.883/gal. as of 5/23.

• For the 16th time in 17 weeks, the benchmark price used for most diesel fuel surcharges declined.
• Price is down 73.9 cents from the $4.622/gallon price it stood at before beginning the recent run of declines.
• Price stands at its lowest level since Jan. 31, 2022, when it was $3.846 a gallon.
• The price is $1.688 less than a year ago.

The forecast for diesel prices has again been revised down per the EIA on May 9th from their previous forecast on April 11th.

	2023	2024
U.S. Retail Diesel Prices (Dollars per gallon)	$3.90	$3.62
Previous Forecast	$4.11	$3.87
Percentage Change	-4.9%	-6.4%

In the short term, diesel is starting to see inventory levels tighten which may stall efforts to see a continued downtrend.

Truckload

A slowing economy and high inventories continue to stifle the truckload market.

• Tonnage dropped in April by 3.4% YoY
• Weakened imports are contributing to lower volumes.
• Elevated uncertainty about the economy and consumer confidence are causing businesses to be cautious about placing orders.
• Truckload demand is 1 -2% lower than one year ago while supply is 6 -7% higher.
• Until the oversupply of capacity is thinned out, rates will not increase.
• Smaller carriers have locked in dedicated contracts to survive, which has slowed attrition compared to previous downturns.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: DAT Freight

Truckload Rates

• Spot rates have fallen in 14 of the last 15 months.
• Spot rates have fallen 26% YoY.
• Spot rates fell .11/mi from March to April.
• Contracted rates fell .07/mi from March to April.

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

LTL

FedEx Freight stated that it will be closing 29 freight locations and furloughing certain job classes.

• Furloughs will start May 28.
• They aim to consolidate operations to adjust to market demand and changing dynamics.
• The locations are planned to be closed effective Aug. 13.

ODFL reported a 3.5% decrease in LTL services in Q1.

• They also lowered forecasts for the remainder of 2023.

UPS employees are threatening to strike at the end of July.

• Both sides are optimistic that an agreement can be reached before July 31^st.
• The 24 million packages UPS ships on an average day, amounts to about a quarter of all U.S. parcel volume.
• UPS says they deliver the equivalent of about 6% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

LTL Rates

The revised LTL rate forecast is for a YoY decrease of 2.4% excluding fuel.

 

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• The Logistics Managers’ Index reads in at 57.6 in January, up (+3.0) from December’s reading of 54.6. This marks the second consecutive increase in the overall index. Back-to-back growth rates are notable as they come after a run of eight months of declining growth. The one exception to the decreases since last Spring was in September  2022. That reprieve was driven primarily by the transfer of overstocked inventories from upstream wholesalers and distributors to downstream retailers preparing for Q4 demand. January’s growth rate is different in that:
  • There have been two increases in a row, suggesting a trend
  • Unlike September, supply chains are not as flush with inventory that they are merely shifting goods around. Inventories are much lower now than they were in Q3 of last year, and it seems the supply chains have the goal of replenishment 
• Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to drop to nearly its lowest level this month since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the consulting firm Hackett Associates. “With the U.S. economy slowing and consumers worried by rising interest rates and still-high inflation, retailers are importing less merchandise,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “February is traditionally a slow month, but these are the lowest numbers we’ve seen in almost three years. Retailers are being cautious as they wait to see how the economy responds to efforts to bring inflation under control.” U.S. ports handled 1.73 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in December, the latest month for which final numbers are available, NRF and Hackett said in their “Global Port Tracker” report. That was down 2.6% from November and down 17.1% from December 2021. That brought 2022 – which broke multiple monthly records in the first half of the year but saw significant drops in the second half.
• As freight demand declines and budgets tighten, hiring and retention are expected to remain a challenge for trucking in 2023, according to executives of three top U.S. trucking associations. As retirements and attrition take their toll, introducing trucking to younger recruits as a career option and other creative strategies are essential for carriers to have enough drivers, technicians and other personnel to keep their operations rolling. Carriers, associations, a federal contractor and multiple retailers are among those exploring solutions.
• The spot market for carriers continues to rebalance, but rates—at least for smaller fleets and owner-operators—still aren’t making up for higher current operating costs, according to four data-analysis firms that all recently weighed in on the volatile state of freight transportation. In their end-of-January survey of the spot market, Spot Market Insights, two of the firms, FTR Transportation Intelligence and Truckstop, saw rates in that marketplace behaving seasonally but declining across the board. “While rates are still tracking with the five-year average, spot-load activity this year has been weakening relative to average levels,” said the Truckstop/FTR outlook. “In the latest week, volume was nearly 21% below the five-year average. That comparison has deteriorated each week during 2023 and is the lowest since the lockdown period of the pandemic except for Thanksgiving week last year.”
• Global shifts in manufacturing and sourcing are on stark display in Mexican factories along the border with the U.S., The Wall Street Journal. Plants and industrial parks in the exporting hub of Tijuana are humming at nearly full capacity while in Ciudad Juárez, across the border from El Paso, Texas, recruiters are rushing to hire workers for companies arriving or expanding operations.

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage.
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options.

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day.
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate.
  • Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times.
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers.
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against.
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk.

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks.
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible.
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers.

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
• The increase in private inventory investment was led by manufacturing (mainly petroleum, coal products, and chemicals) as well as mining, utilities, and construction industries (led by utilities). The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the increase was led by health care, housing and utilities, and “other” services (notably, personal care services). Within goods, the leading contributor was motor vehicles and parts.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 4.8 percent in the third quarter.
  • The PCE price index increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent.

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.4 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The energy index rose 2.0 percent in January, as the gasoline index increased 2.4 percent over the month. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.2 percent in January.)
  • The energy index rose 8.7 percent over the past 12 months.
  • The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.6 percent over the past 12 months
  • The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month.
  • The energy index increased 8.7 percent for the 12 months ending January, and the food index increased 10.1 percent over the last year.

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported February 3rd.
• Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care.

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.614M in January from 1.610M in December, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Truck employment decreased to 1.590M in January from 1.610M in December, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• In January, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, and the employment- population ratio, at 60.2 percent, were unchanged after removing the effects of the annual adjustments to the population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $10.0 billion or 1.8 percent to $552.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported February 2
  • This followed a 1.9 percent decrease in November.
• Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up nineteen of the last twenty months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $277.4 billion, down from the previously published 0.5 percent increase.
  • This followed a 0.4 percent November increase.
• Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty-eight consecutive months, increased $14.4 billion or 1.3 percent to $1,158.0 billion unchanged from the previously published increase
  • Transportation equipment, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, led the increase, $14.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $684.9 billion.
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.07, up from 6.01 in November.
• Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty-three consecutive months, increased $3.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $493.6 billion.
  • This followed a 0.2 percent November increase.
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.49, up from 1.47 in November.

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, went down by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in December of 2022, in line with market expectations.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders decreased to $74.85 billion in December from $74.92 billion in November.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 1/30 stood at $4.62 per gallon, a decrease of 8 cents from the same period in December.
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $0.77 – or 17 percent more – than a year ago.

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4 percent; 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent recorded in December.
• The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 70.2 in January 2023, up marginally (+.07) from Decembers reading of 69.5.
  • The Transportation Capacity Index continues to remain elevated and near all-time highs.
  • The Upstream Transportation Capacity index is slightly lower, coming in at 66.4 while the Downstream index indicates 70.2.

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index continued to contract but at a slower rate (+5.1) in January, up from 36.9 in December 2022.
• This is the second-lowest reading for Transportation Prices in the history of the index, above only the 37.7 observed in April 2020 at the height of lockdowns.
• Despite this increase, the Transportation Prices Index remains in contraction territory, below 50, and near two-year lows.
• There are no significant differences in Transportation Prices across the supply chain, with the Upstream price index at 42.1 and the Downstream transportation price index at 39.1.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® fell 0.9% m/m in January to 149.2, after a 1.0% m/m decline in December.
• On a year-to-year basis, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index turned to a 5.6% y/y decline after a 1.7% increase in December.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

Source: American Trucking Associations

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in December after decreasing 2.5% in November.
  • In December, the index equaled 115.2 (2015=100) versus 114.8 in November.
• “Despite the small gain in December, for-hire truck tonnage clearly decelerated during the final quarter in 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “In fact, tonnage outperformed some other key metrics that drive truck freight, like housing starts and factory output during the final month of the year. This is probably because contract truckload freight is still outperforming the spot market and less-than-truckload freight after underperforming both of those sectors in 2021.”
• For all of 2022, tonnage was up 3.4%, which was the best annual gain since 2018.
• Compared with December 2021, the SA index increased 0.3%, which was the sixteenth straight year-over-year gain, but the smallest over that period. In November, the index was up 0.8% from a year earlier.
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 112.6 in December, 1.8% below the November level (114.6).

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 3.01 in January.
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for an eighth consecutive month with spot and contracted registering at $2.38 and $2.90 respectively.
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 8 percent at the end of January.

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a factor of the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput.

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• A new report by Descartes Datamyne shows U.S. inbound container volumes fell in December to close to pre-pandemic levels, as forecasts point to deeper declines in the coming months. The Wall Street Journal reports overall U.S. container imports fell 2.8% in 2022, halting two straight years of growth with declines loaded into the second half of the year. Ocean shipping rates are also slipping to pre-pandemic levels, although several measures show the pricing decline is leveling off to start the year. Still, the Global Port Tracker projects steep drops in U.S. box imports in the coming months and, prices may continue to drop if shipping capacity doesn’t keep up.
• Cargo theft recording firm CargoNet recorded 1,778 supply chain risk events across the United States and Canada in 2022, a 15% increase over 2021. The firm’s 2022 data indicated that events that involved theft of at least one heavy commercial vehicle such as a semi-truck or semi-trailer increased by 17% year-over-year, while events that involved theft of cargo increased by 20% year-over-year. CargoNet noted that a single event record could involve theft of one or more vehicles or shipments. Supply chain disruptions were one of the main concerns of the year because of their effect on inflation, CargoNet said. Scarcity and cost drove illicit market demand for goods that were most affected, like computer graphics cards and raw beef, poultry and pork. Available capacity eased in the later months of 2022, but theft remained a prominent threat.
• Freight shipments and expenditures readings were mixed to finish 2022, according to the most recent edition of the Cass Freight Index, which issued this week by Cass Information Systems. Many freight, transportation, and logistics executives consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index. December’s shipment reading—at 1.161—was down 3.9% annually, steeper than November’s 0.4% annual decrease and October’s 3.9% decline, with September down 4.8%. It also trailed August’s 1.278 reading, which marked the highest level for shipments since May 2018. “The larger [annual] decline, mainly on a tough comparison, was not a surprise…but we’d characterize the sequential, seasonally adjusted increase as further evidence of resilient, but still soft freight demand,” wrote the report’s author Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst.

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage.
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options.

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day.
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate.
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed.

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times.
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal.

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers.
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against.
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks.
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible.
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities.

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers.

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022, in contrast to a decrease of 0.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the December 22, 2022, release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a decrease in housing investment
• Private services-producing industries increased 4.9 percent, government increased 0.6 percent, and private goods-producing industries decreased 1.3 percent. Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 4.8 percent in the third quarter (table 4), an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.
  • The PCE price index increased 4.3 percent, unchanged from the prior estimate
• Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point.

Inflation

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November.

• The gasoline index declined 9.4 percent over the month, following a 2.0-percent decrease in November.
• The energy index decreased 4.5 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined; other major energy component indexes increased over the month.
• The food index increased 0.3 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.2 percent
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in December, after rising 0.2 percent in November
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 5.7 percent over the past 12 months.
• The energy index rose 7.3 percent over the past 12 months
• The food index increased 10.4 percent over the last year

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on January 6.
• Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance.

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.601M in December from 1.599M in November, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment also decreased to 1.604M in December from 1.612M in November, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate experienced minor impact at 62.3 percent. Both measures have shown little net change since early 2022. These measures are each 1.0 percentage point below their values in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $9.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $543.3 billion, U.S. Census Bureau reported on January 6.
  • This followed a 0.4 percent increase in October.
• Shipments, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $548.6 billion.
  • This followed a 0.2 percent October increase.
• Unfilled orders, down following twenty-six consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.2 billion or virtually unchanged to $1,143.1 billion.
  • This followed a 0.5 percent October increase.
• The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.02, down from 6.03 in October.
• Inventories, up three consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $804.7 billion.
• This followed a 0.4 percent October increase.
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, down from 1.47 in July.

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in November of 2022, beating market expectations of a flat reading.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $75.12 billion in November from $74.05 billion in October.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 12/26 stood at $4.54 per gallon, a decrease of 60 cents from the same period in November.
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $.89 – or 20 percent more – than a year ago.

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI®) is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The December Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 49 percent recorded in November.
• The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Utilization Index registered 48.1 in December 2022.
  • This denotes a retreat (-1.9) November’s reading of 50.0 which had indicated no movement.
• With this drop the metric are now below the critical level of 50 that separates expansion and contraction.
• Downstream Transportation Utilization Index is at 56.0, indicating expansion, while the upstream index is significantly lower at 42.9, indicating contraction. As such, our data indicates that during the holiday season the customer facing Downstream supply chain transportation was expanding while the Upstream transportation was contracting.

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index read 44.5 in September 2022, down from August’s reading of 48.0, pushing the Transportation Prices Index into contraction territory for the first time in two years.
• This is the second-lowest reading for Transportation Prices in the history of the index, above only the 37.7 observed in April 2020 at the height of lockdowns.
• The drop in Transportation Prices suggests that some market power is shifting back towards shippers.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 1.0% month to month in December to 150.5, after a 1.2% month to month decline in November.
• On a year-to-year basis, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was up 1.7% after a similar increase in November.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

Source: American Trucking Associations

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 2.5% in November after slipping 1.2% in October.
• In November, the index equaled 114.7 (2015=100) versus 117.6 in October.
• “For-hire truck tonnage saw the largest single monthly decrease in November since the start of the pandemic and a total drop of 3.7% in October and November,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The decreases match anecdotal reports of a soft fall freight season as well as a slowing goods-economy generally. Housing-related freight is particularly weak.”
• Compared with November 2021, the SA index increased 0.8%, which was the fifteenth straight year-over-year gain, but the smallest over that period.
• In October, the index was up 4% from a year earlier.
• Tonnage was up 3.9% Year-to-date through August, compared with the same period in 2021.
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 124.6 in August, 8.2% above the July level (115.1).

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio increased to 3.45 in December.
• National average spot and contracted rates are registering at $2.48 and $2.92 respectively.
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 8 percent at the end of September (obtained from the DAT Freight & Analytics, Freightvine podcast. Skip to the last portion of the latest show where they provide the market update.)

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a factor in the LTL industry, it is likely some of the truckload spillover will permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
• Yellow is currently executing a network overhaul in which it has consolidated all of its separately run LTL brands onto the same tech platform. It is also rationalizing some terminals to reduce redundancy, improve asset utilization and lower its cost structure.
• Saia has continued its footprint expansion in Q3 with three Kansas terminals, bringing the company to a total of 186 sites across the country, stating this will  offer quicker, direct service to customers in the area. “The facilities will also provide us with increased efficiencies within our network, allowing a higher level of service by speeding up the delivery cycle, while also reducing the possibility for claims because of less handling,” said Kevin Szydel, Saia’s Vice President of Operations.

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• Convoy, J.B. Hunt Transport Inc., and Uber Freight  will join forces to create a technology standard for shipment appointment scheduling, saying the move could ease friction among carriers, brokers, and shippers. The partners today unveiled a Scheduling Standards Consortium (SSC) that they say will create application programming interfaces (APIs) that will establish the freight industry’s first formal set of appointment scheduling standards. Initial SSC standards and documentation, starting with full truckload freight, will be available as early as the first quarter of 2023, they announced.
• A consensus is emerging that spot US truckload rates will hit bottom sometime in the first quarter, followed by contract truckload rates in the third quarter. The six-month period in between may be a bumpy ride as carrier supply adjusts to shipper demand.
• United States rail carload and intermodal volumes, for the month of November, saw annual declines, according to data issued by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). When looking at the current state of intermodal volumes, a few quick themes jump out, observed Larry Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting. One theme was the ongoing decline in domestic volume going back to March, which Gross said, when looking back at calendar year 2022, will be viewed as the real Peak Season month for intermodal, in terms of the highest level of intermodal activity for the year. “We are seeing a pretty steady decline in intermodal domestic volume, this is not a capacity issue anymore,” he said. “This is a market demand issue that we are seeing right now.”
• Economic activity in the logistics industry slowed for a second straight month in November, continuing a steady decline from the pandemic-induced record high growth levels of mid-2020 through early 2022, according to the latest monthly Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released earlier this month. The November slowdown was driven by what the researchers called a “long-anticipated wind down” of inventories. Inventory levels hit an all-time high reading of 80.2 in February and have been declining ever since, falling to 65.5 in October and then dropping nearly 11 points to a reading of 54.8 last month, due primarily to peak season holiday shopping.

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage.
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options.

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day.
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate.
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed.

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times.
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal.

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers.
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against.
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks.
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible.
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities.

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers.

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022, in contrast to a decrease of 0.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the November 30, 2022, Bureau of Economic Analysis release.
• The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased.
• The decrease in residential fixed investment was led by new single-family construction and brokers’ commissions. Within private inventory investment, the decrease was led by retail trade (mainly clothing and accessory stores as well as “other” retailers). Within imports, a decrease in imports of goods (notably consumer goods) was partly offset by an increase in imports of services (mainly travel).
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 4.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the first quarter of the year.
  • The PCE price index increased 4.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.6 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  • The gasoline index fell 2.0 percent in November following a 4.0 percent increase in October.
  • The energy index decreased 1.6 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased.
  • The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.5 percent.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September.
• The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months.
  • The energy index increased 19.8 percent for the 12 months ending. September, a smaller increase than the 23.8 percent increase for the period ending August.
  • The food index increased 11.2 percent over the last year.

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on December 2, 2022.
• Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government.

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.601M in November from 1.600M in October, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Truck employment also decreased to 1.614M in November from 1.616M in October, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.1 percent in November and remains below its February 2020 level.

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in October, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $5.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $556.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on December 5th.
  • This followed a 0.3 percent decrease in September.
• Shipments, up seventeen out of the last eighteen months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $547.9 billion.
  • This followed a 0.3 percent September increase.
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-six consecutive months, increased $6.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,144.0 billion.
  • This followed a 0.5 percent September increase.
• The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.03, unchanged from September
• Inventories, up two consecutive months, increased $4.0 billion or 0.5 percent to $805.3 billion.
  • This followed a virtually unchanged July increase.
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, unchanged from September.

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose by 0.7 percent from a month earlier in October of 2022, beating market expectations of a flat reading.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $75.275 billion in October from $74.81 billion in September.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 11/28 stood at $5.14 per gallon, a decrease of 15 cents from the same period in October.
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs are still approximately $1.60 – or 48 percent more – than a year ago.

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49 percent; 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent recorded in October.
• The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 71.4 percent in November 2022.
  • This constitutes a decline of 1.7 points from the October reading of 73.1.
  • With this decrease, the Transportation Capacity index retreated slightly from the all-time high but remains very elevated.
• The slowdown is more pronounced Upstream, with the Upstream Transportation Capacity index indicating 69.4 and Downstream index indicating 75.5.

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index read 37.4 in November 2022, down (4.8) from October’s reading of 42.2.
• With this drop the Transportation Prices Index pushes further down into contraction territory and registers a brand new 2 year low.
• The price index drop is much stronger for Downstream supply chain firms, with the Upstream price index at 42.5 and the downstream transportation price index at only 28.1.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index slowed 2 percent year-over-year in October to 153.90 after rising 3.9% percent year-over-year in September.
• On a month-to-month basis, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 1.5% after a 2.2% decline in September.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

Source: American Trucking Associations

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 2.3% in October after rising 0.8% in September.
  • In October, the index equaled 116.3 (2015=100) versus 119.1 in September.
• “For-hire truck tonnage saw the largest single monthly decrease in October since the start of the pandemic,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The decrease fits with the anecdotal reports of a muted fall freight season. It also coincides with a slowing economy. Housing is a weak spot in freight in addition to a slowing in personal consumption of goods. While factory related freight is holding up better than other areas, it is also decelerating.”
• Compared with October 2021, the SA index increased 2.8%, which was the fourteenth straight year-over-year gain, but the smallest gain since April.
• In September, the index was up 5.7% from a year earlier.
• Year-to-date through October, compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 3.9%.
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 118.9 in October, 0.4% below the September level (119.3).

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 2.68 in November, a trend that has been nearly uninterrupted since the beginning of the year.
• National average spot and contracted rates stayed steady with spot and contracted registering at $2.38 and $3.05 respectively.
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 12 percent at the end of November.

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a factor of the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput.
• Yellow is currently executing a network overhaul in which it has consolidated all of its separately run LTL brands onto the same tech platform. It is also rationalizing some terminals to reduce redundancy, improve asset utilization and lower its cost structure.
• Saia has continued its footprint expansion in Q3 with three Kansas terminals, bringing the company to a total of 186 sites across the country. They state they will now be able to offer quicker, direct service to customers in the area. “The facilities will also provide us with increased efficiencies within our network, allowing a higher level of service by speeding up the delivery cycle, while also reducing the possibility for claims because of less handling,” said Kevin Szydel, Saia’s Vice President of Operations.
• Measures of both US truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) costs rose in November, buoyed by stronger-than expected retail sales in the run-up to the year-end holidays. The US producer price indexes (PPIs) for long-distance truckload and LTL services in November rose 1.4 and 2.2 percent from October, respectively, according to data released Friday.
• Less-than-truckload carriers have been vocal that they will be rightsizing head counts to match a recent pullback in volumes. LTL heads noted that year-over-year tonnage declines so far in November have accelerated from the levels recorded in September and October. The update was the latest sign that the traditional peak shipping season has not materialized this year as general softness in the retail sector is only partially being offset by firmer demand in the industrial complex. Yellow’s CEO Darren Hawkins said the company would look to align labor to freight volumes. He said the company’s unionized employee base allows it to “utilize contractual layoffs to match our hours available to the workload that’s presented to us on a daily basis.” After several quarters of record financial performances, the LTL sector is recalibrating to the downside of the freight cycle. During the pandemic, carriers took on great expense in the form of recruiting and hiring to staff networks appropriately to prop up service levels. Now that demand is receding off all-time highs, companies are adjusting the labor line.

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• A note on Rail: The threat of a rail strike on or about November 19 has been avoided. The NCCC and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (BMWE) have agreed that the current cooling off period, which had been set to expire on November 19, will be extended until at least December 4 and is subject to further extension to maintain alignment, if necessary, with other labor organizations.
• American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello said October 25 that the trucking industry should be fairly insulated from a potential recession in 2023. “I think that we’re going to have a mild recession early next year,” Costello said. “The U.S. is sort of the best house on a bad block. And so, we’re probably going to be able to weather it a little bit better. But there’s some really unique things going on in our industry that is going to at least isolate much of us in this room from having anything too difficult.”
• Freight companies are preparing for what executives are calling a muted peak season, as dimming shipping demand from overstocked retailers ripples across U.S. shipping markets. Several big operators say they are seeing freight demand drop off rather than pick up heading into what is typically their busiest period of the year.
• According to an SAP survey of 400 U.S.-based senior decision makers, nearly half (49%) said they expect supply chain issues that began during the pandemic to last through the end of this year—with a third saying they expect issues to linger until the summer of 2023.
• The COVID-19 hours-of-service emergency declaration allowing haulers of certain commodities to operate outside the normal hours of service since March 2020 has expired. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration allowed the declaration to lapse on Saturday, October 15.

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage.
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options.

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day.
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate.
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times.
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal.

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers.
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against.
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk.

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks.
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible.
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers.

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 0.6 percent in the second quarter, according to the October 27 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• The increase in real GDP reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases– BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy –  increased 4.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent in the second quarter.
• The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 7.3 percent.
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.7 percent.

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items consumer price index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
  • The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing.
  • The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased.
  • The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent.
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September.
• The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months.
  • The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, a smaller increase than the 19.8 percent increase for the period ending September.
  • The food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year, compared to 11.2 percent in September.

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported November 4.
• Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.601M in October from 1.588M in September, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  • Truck employment also increased to 1.614M in October from 1.594M in September, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis.

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, were about unchanged in October and have shown little net change since early this year.

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• New orders for manufactured goods in September, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $551.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on November 3.
  • This followed a 0.2 percent August increase.
• Shipments, up eighteen of the last nineteen months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $550.3 billion.
  • This followed a 0.7 percent August increase.
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-five consecutive months, increased $5.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $1,137.8 billion.
  • This followed a 0.5 percent August increase.
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.04, up from 5.98 in August.
• Inventories, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $801.6 billion.
  • This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease.
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, unchanged from August.

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.7 percent month-over-month in September of 2022, down from a downwardly revised 0.8 percent rise in August, missing market forecasts of a 0.5 percent gain.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

 

• On a dollar basis, orders decreased to $75.04 billion in September from $75.38 billion in August.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 10/31 stood at $5.31 per gallon, an increase of 32 cents from the same period in August.
• Trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $1.60 – or 48 percent more – than a year ago (unchanged from last month.)

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 50.2 percent, 0.7 percentage points lower than the 50.9 percent recorded in September.
• The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 73.1 percent in October 2022.
  • This constitutes a jump of 1.3 points from the September reading of 71.8.
  • With this increase, the Transportation Capacity index reached a new 3-year high.
• The Transportation Capacity expansion can be observed across the supply chain, with the Upstream index indicating 73.9 and Downstream index indicating 71.4.

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index continues to decrease, registering in at 42.2 in October 2022. This corresponds to a drop of 2.3 percent from the September Transportation Prices reading of 44.5.
• With this drop the Transportation Prices Index pushes further down and registers a brand new 2-year low.
• The price index drop is evenly spread across the supply chain, with the Upstream price index at 42.5 and the Downstream transportation price index is at 41.7.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index increased 3.9 percent year-over-year in September to 156.2 after rising 7.4 percent year-over-year in August.
• On a month-to-month basis, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 2.2%.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

Source: American Trucking Associations

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.5% in September after rising 2.1% in August.
  • In September, the index equaled 118.8 (2015=100) versus 118.2 in August.
• “The latest gain put tonnage at the highest level since August 2019 and the third highest level on record,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “This is another example of how the contract freight market remains strong despite weakness in the spot market this year. During the third quarter, tonnage increased 0.5% over the second quarter while increasing 5.6% over the same period in 2021. That was the largest quarterly year-over-year increase since the second quarter of 2018.”
• Compared with September 2021, the SA index increased 5.5%, which was the thirteenth straight year-over-year gain. In August, the index was up 6.7% from a year earlier.
• Year-to-date through September, compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 4%.
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 119 in September, 3.8% below the August level (123.7.)

DAT Freight Summary

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a sticky factor of the LTL industry, it is fair to say that some of the truckload spillover will permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput.
• Yellow is currently executing a network overhaul in which it has consolidated all of its separately run LTL brands onto the same tech platform. It is also rationalizing some terminals to reduce redundancy, improve asset utilization and lower its cost structure.
• Saia has continued its footprint expansion in Q3 with three Kansas terminals, bringing the company to a total of 186 sites across the country. “The facilities will also provide us with increased efficiencies within our network, allowing a higher level of service by speeding up the delivery cycle, while also reducing the possibility for claims because of less handling,” said Kevin Szydel, Saia’s Vice President of Operations.

ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• KeyBanc’s Carney Blake, the group’s logistics analysts, wrote that freight activity has been “seasonally weak.” There’s been “limited indication” of the typical peak season activity that carriers and shippers expect in the fall as retailers prepare for the holiday season.
• Carriers are continuing their work to restore service after Hurricane Ian ripped through Florida. The need for construction equipment in rebuilding efforts will push up trucking demand and rates, according to Jason Miller, interim chairperson for the Department of Supply Chain Management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business. However, given that the truck spot market has contracted over the past few months, Ian’s impact on rates is expected to be minimal.
• Supply-chain congestion may be easing in some quarters, but not at the swamped rail yards and container terminals around Chicago, says The Wall Street Journal. The shortage of the vital truck trailer equipment is one result of the flood of imports that has swamped inland operations since the chassis are often used to hold sea containers because warehouses are so crowded.
• “The topic of fuel prices has been on the forefront of most people’s mind lately. We have seen historic highs in fuel prices recently and this expense affects the transportation industry profoundly. Diesel has become a greater component of freight cost and carrier profits across all modes.” – Tom Nightingale, CEO, AFS Logistics
• TSA said it determined that it is in the public interest to grant a temporary exemption for commercial truck drivers renewing their hazmat endorsement and who have previously passed the threat assessment. TSA acting Administrator David Pekoske said in a news release. “The commercial truck drivers impacted by this decision are subject to recurrent vetting during the exemption period, and their businesses will continue to provide safe and efficient transportation.”
• Truck transportation jobs in September suffered a decline that could be viewed as historic. September jobs declined 11,400 jobs to a seasonally adjusted total of 1,580,800 jobs. That is only the third month since the pandemic began in which truck transportation jobs dropped.
• The merger-and-acquisition craze in the $332 billion full truckload market continues. Werner Enterprises, the sixth-largest carrier in the TL market with $2.7 billion in revenue last year, expanded its terminal, fleet and driver footprint in mid-America by purchasing Milan, Ind.-based Baylor Trucking.

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
  • Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter, according to the September 29 release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• The smaller decrease in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter, reflected an upturn in exports and an acceleration in consumer spending.
• Private goods-producing industries decreased 10.4 percent, private services producing industries increased 2.0 percent, and government decreased 0.2 percent. Overall, 9 of 22 industry groups contributed to the second-quarter decline in real GDP.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 8.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the first quarter of the year
  • The PCE price index increased 7.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items consumer price index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The gasoline index fell 4.9 percent in September and partially offset increases in shelter, food and medical expenses
• The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased
  • The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August
• The all items less food and energy index rose 6.6 percent over the last 12 months
  • The energy index increased 19.8 percent for the 12 months ending September, a smaller increase than the 23.8 percent increase for the period ending August
  • The food index increased 11.2 percent over the last year

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on October 7
• Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment decreased to 1.581M in September from 1.592M in August, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment also decreased to 1.591M in September from 1.613M in August, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.3 percent in September and remains below its February 2020 level

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in August, down two consecutive months, decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $548.4 billion, U.S. Census Bureau reported on October 4
  • This followed a 1.0 percent decrease in July
• Shipments, up seventeen out of the last eighteen months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $547.9 billion
  • This followed a 0.7 percent July increase
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-four consecutive months, increased $5.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $1,132.1 billion
  • This followed a 0.7 percent July increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.01, down from 6.05 in July
• Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $800.2 billion
  • This followed a virtually unchanged July increase
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, down from 1.47 in July

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.3 percent month-over-month in August of 2022, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.7 percent rise in July. This figure was above market forecasts of 0.2 percent

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $75.72 billion in August from $74.71 billion in July

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 9/30 stood at $4.99 per gallon, a decrease of 2 cents from the same period in August
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $1.60 – or 48 percent more – than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 52.8 percent recorded in August.
• The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent.

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 71.8 percent in September 2022
  • This constitutes a jump of 7.4 points from the August reading of 64.3
  • With this increase, the Transportation Capacity index reached a new 3-year high
• The Transportation Capacity expansion can be observed across the supply chain, with the Upstream index indicating 70.6 and Downstream index indicating 73.5

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index read 44.5 in September 2022, down (3.5) from August’s reading of 48.0, pushing the Transportation Prices Index into contraction territory for the first time in two years
• This is the second-lowest reading for Transportation Prices in the history of the index, above only the 37.7 observed in April 2020 at the height of lockdowns.
• The drop in Transportation Prices suggests that some market power is shifting back towards shippers
• The price index drop is slightly more pronounced for Upstream supply chain firms, where the price index at 43.5, the Downstream transportation price index is at 45.9.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 7.4 percent year-over-year in August to 159.7 after rising 10.5 percent year-over-year in July
• On a month-to-month basis, the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 1.8%, similar to the declines in June and July.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.8 percent in August after decreasing 1.1 percent in July
  • In June, the index equaled 120.1 (2015=100) versus 116.9 in May
• “Tonnage snapped back in August after a weaker than expected July,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “With the economy in transition to slower growth and changing consumer patterns, we may see more volatility in the months ahead. But the good news is that we continue to witness areas of freight growth in consumer spending and manufacturing, which is helping to offset the weakness in new home construction.”
• Compared with August 2021, the SA index increased 7.4 percent, which was the twelfth straight year-over-year gain and the largest since June 2018
• In July, the index was up 4.7 percent from a year earlier
• Year-to-date through August, compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 3.9%
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 124.6 in August, 8.2% above the July level (115.1)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 3.54 in September, a trend that has been nearly uninterrupted since the beginning of the year
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for an eighth consecutive month with spot and contracted registering at $2.45 and $3.09 respectively
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 8 percent at the end of September

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a sticky factor of the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
• Yellow is currently executing a network overhaul in which it has consolidated all of its separately run LTL brands onto the same tech platform. It is also rationalizing some terminals to reduce redundancy, improve asset utilization and lower its cost structure.
• Saia has continued its footprint expansion in Q3 with three Kansas terminals, bringing the company to a total of 186 sites across the country. They will now be able to offer quicker, direct service to customers in the area. “The facilities will also provide us with increased efficiencies within our network, allowing a higher level of service by speeding up the delivery cycle, while also reducing the possibility for claims because of less handling,” said Kevin Szydel, Saia’s Vice President of Operations.

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter and plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage.
• Unions and management reached a tentative deal early Thursday, September 15, averting a freight railroad strike that had threatened to negatively impact US supply chains. The deal concluded 20 hours of talks between the unions’ leadership and the railroads’ labor negotiators hosted by US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh.
• While the national average dry van linehaul spot rate has been decreasing, the current average is still higher than figures for the three years before the pandemic. Regional differences have also been playing out, with outbound rates increasing more in areas such as Savannah, GA, and Harrisburg, PA.
• DAT Load-to-Truck ratios recently show minor fluctuations compared to the decline seen within the first six months of 2022.
• The tonnage index marked 116.2, seasonally adjusted, in July (the index lags by one month). That’s a 1.1% decrease from June’s index, which ATA revised down to 117.5 from its previous monthly release. “Despite the dip from June, tonnage remains at elevated levels and increased significantly from a year earlier,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a monthly report. “Softer consumer demand plus slowdowns in home construction and manufacturing activity contributed to the drop,” he added.
• New equipment orders remain high. “While trucking conditions have as of late suffered due to weaker market dynamics and increasing costs, overall demand for new equipment remains exceptional and is expected to remain strong as carriers are still in need of new equipment to supplement their replacement cycles,” Charles Roth, FTR commercial vehicles analyst, said in the market update.
• The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has once again extended its HOS emergency exemptions for COVID-19. The agency said Wednesday in a notice that it will extend the provisions, which give some relief to hours-of-service requirements, through Oct. 15.
• National Truck Driver Appreciation Week is being held next week, Sept. 11-17, and a number of trucking-related businesses and organizations are celebrating truck drivers with various forms of deals and recognition for the entire month of September.
• Trucking jobs increased slightly in August, while all transportation jobs experienced the smallest increase since March.
• Based on Odyssey’s planned shipment volumes, overall amount of freight moving into the overflow process where carriers charge spot market prices continues its decline since February

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022.
  • In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent
  • The second-quarter decrease was revised up 0.3 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released in July.
  • The smaller decrease in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter, primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.
• The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, that were partly offset by increases in exports and consumer spending.
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 8.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the first quarter of the year
  • The PCE price index increased 7.1 percent, the same rate as the first quarter
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 5.2 percent in Q1

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items consumer price index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The gasoline index fell 10.6 percent in August and offset increases in the food and shelter indexes
  • The energy index fell 5.0 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined while the natural gas and electricity indexes increased
  • The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July
• The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months
  • The energy index increased 23.8 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 32.9-percent increase for the period ending July
  • The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 315,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 2.
• Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.
• Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment basically held steady at 1.596M in August compared to 1.595M in July, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment continued a rise to 1.612M in August from 1.607M in July, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, was slightly up over the month but remains below its February 2020 level

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in July, down following nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $548.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on September 2
  • This followed a 1.8 percent June increase
• Shipments, down following sixteen consecutive monthly increases, decreased $4.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $545.5 billion.
  • This followed a 0.8 percent June increase
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-three consecutive months, increased $7.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $1,126.7 billion
  • This followed a 0.8 percent June increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.04, up from 6.03 in June
• Inventories, up twenty-three of the last twenty-four months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $802.0 billion
  • This followed a 0.4 percent June increase
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.47, up from 1.45 in Jun

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, rose 0.4 percent month-over-month in July of 2022, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.9 percent rise in June, but slightly above market forecasts of 0.3 percent.

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $74.44 billion in July from $74.01 billion in June

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 8/28 stood at $5.12 per gallon, a decrease of 2 cents from the same period in July
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $1.28 – or 38 percent – more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 52.8 august, the same as July, beating market forecasts of 52
• The reading was the weakest rate since June of 2020

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 64.3 percent in August 2022
  • This constitutes a drop of 4.8 percentage points from the July reading of 69.1.
•  Transportation Capacity Index retreats from recent highs, with the upstream index indicating 66.4 and downstream index indicating 60.5

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index registered 48.0 percent in August 2022. This corresponds to a drop of 1.5 percent from the July transportation prices reading of 49.5.
• With this drop the Transportation Prices Index remains below 50 and continues to indicate contraction.
• The price index drop is more pronounced for downstream supply chain firms, where the upstream price index at 44.9. The upstream transportation price index is at 50.
• The future index for transportation prices remains at 56.1, continuing expectations of slight price increases for the next year.

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 10.5 percent year-over-year in July to 162.7 after rising 11.6 percent year-over-year in June
• With the tight supply/demand balance in U.S> trucking markets easing considerably this year, industry rates are topping out and set to slow sharply in the months to come.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 1.1% in July after rising 0.5% in June.
  • In July, the index equaled 116.2 (2015=100) versus 117.5 in June.
• “Tonnage declined sequentially in July for only the second time during the last twelve months. Despite the dip from June, tonnage remains at elevated levels and increased significantly from a year earlier,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “While tonnage is much stronger than a year ago, the monthly gains have moderated as the year has gone on. The combination of softer consumption of goods, home construction falling and slower manufacturing activity are the main reasons.”
• Compared with July 2021, the SA index increased 5.1 percent, which was the eleventh straight year-over-year gain
• In June, the index was up 5.6 percent from a year earlier
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 115.5 in July, 5.2 percent above the June level (121.9)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 3.54 in August, a trend that has been nearly uninterrupted since the beginning of the year
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for a seventh consecutive month with spot and contracted registering at $2.53 and $3.13, respectively
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 6 percent at the end of August

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• Industrial-related freight accounts for roughly two-thirds of total tonnage for most LTL carriers. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index remained unchanged at 52.8 in August. A reading above 50% indicates growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
• Pitt Ohio recently acquired assets from Teal’s. Under the new structure, Pitt Ohio is integrating four terminals (Albany, Buffalo, Utica and Watertown) as well as the equipment and employees of Teal’s into its existing operations. The new facilities mark the first terminal additions to Pitt Ohio’s network in 16 years. The Pittsburgh-based carrier now boasts 25 terminals throughout the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Northeast.
• Some of the largest US less-than-truckload carriers, including FedEx Freight, are adding terminals and doors to their networks as LTL freight demand continues despite the threat of economic recession.
•  Four major LTL carriers told investors they are scrutinizing their outsourcing practices for savings opportunities. This includes a variety of costs, from equipment to third-party linehaul services.
• LTL carriers continue to implement new technology that enables more aggressive tracking and invoicing of TONU fees and detention.

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• Truck capacity may be loosening in some markets or some lanes, but it is not abundant universally, and constraints on the addition of new capacity will keep pressure on US contract transportation rates despite the spot market price correction this spring
  • Jason Miller, associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University was quoted by the Journal of Commerce: “I would say if you’re expecting a very rapid decrease in your transportation budget as you move through the rest of this year and next year, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. I don’t see the prices going down substantially even from where they are now. Maybe a little bit here and there. We’re not seeing the demand destruction that you would need to start seeing a substantial price decrease in 2023”
  • Based on Odyssey’s planned shipment volumes, the overall amount of freight moving into the overflow process where carriers charge spot market prices has declined since February
  • While overall matched spend has increased, a substantial portion of the network is outperforming indices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a year over year basis
• Imports, a substantial source of pressure on US truck capacity, are projected to slow moving into the remainder of the year. US retailers forecast imports may decline 1.5 percent year over year in the second half of 2022 and may decelerate further in 2023 as the US economy slows
  • US imports in the first half of 2022 increased 5.5 percent from the same period last year as retailers fast-forwarded fall and holiday merchandise imports to ensure those seasonal items reached the store shelves on time for back to school and holiday shopping
• To reconcile the two figures – rates holding their current pattern with a slowdown in the wider economy – it is important to review sub-components of economic activity:
  • Demand for goods continues to substantially outpace pre-COVID-19 levels
  • While real imports of goods were flat on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q2 from Q1, they remain well above the pre-COVID trendline
  • The ratio of real non-farm inventories to real goods spending remains substantially below the levels observed before the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting there is still a need for rebuilding inventories in certain sectors such as motor vehicles, all of which require freight transportation to ensure deliveries
• While GDP has slowed in the last two quarters, high freight demand continues to drive the expansion of LTL networks
  • Large carriers such as FedEx Freight, Old Dominion Freight Line, and XPO Logistics are adding new terminals and expanding existing facilities. Mid-sized to smaller LTL carriers are also growing, often through acquisitions, such as Pitt Ohio’s purchase of Teal’s Express
    • These moves are not part of market share expansion. Instead, carriers are growing their presence in places where the goal is more business from existing customers, greater density, and improved service with new or expanded facilities
  • LTL rates also remain elevated. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ LTL Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects all-in revenue from rates including fuel surcharges, dropped 1 percent in July after rising 0.9 percent in June, indicating LTL rates may have hit a peak. Even so, the July PPI was still 23percent higher than in July 2021

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 28
  • In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent
  • The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 25, 2022
• The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 8.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the first quarter of the year
  • The PCE price index increased 7.1 percent, the same rate as the first quarter
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 5.2 percent in Q1

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items consumer price index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The gasoline index fell 7.7 percent in July and offset increases in the food and shelter indexes, resulting in the all items index being unchanged over the month
  • The energy index fell 4.6 percent over the month as the indexes for gasoline and natural gas declined, but the index for electricity increased
  • The food index continued to rise, increasing 1.1 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.3 percent
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July, a smaller increase than in April, May, or June
• The all items less food and energy index rose 5.9 percent over the last 12 months
  • The energy index increased 32.9 percent for the 12 months ending July, a smaller increase than the 41.6-percent increase for the period ending June
  • The food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on August 5
• Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care
• Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.595M in July from 1.591M in June, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment continued a significant rise to 1.607M in July from 1.598M in June, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, was little changed over the month and remains below its February 2020 level

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in June, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $555.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on August 3
  • This followed a 1.8 percent May increase
• Shipments, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, increased $6.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $551.9 billion
  • This followed a 2.1 percent May increase
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-two consecutive months, increased $8.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $1,118.0 billion
  • This followed a 0.3 percent May increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.03, up from 5.98 in May
• Inventories, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $3.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $801.5 billion
  • This followed a 1.3 percent May increase
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in May

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose by 0.5 percent from a month earlier in June of 2022, the same as in May, and beating market forecasts of a 0.2 percent gain

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $74.01 billion in June from $73.47 billion in May

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel for the week of 7/31 stood at $5.14 per gallon, a decrease of 64 cents from the same period in June
• However, trucking’s main fuel costs approximately $1.80 – or 54 percent – more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 would designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged lower to 52.8 in July of 2022 from 53 in June, beating market forecasts of 52
• The reading pointed to a 26th straight month of rising factory activity but the weakest rate since June of 2020, as new order rates continue to contract although supplier deliveries improved and prices softened to levels not seen in two years

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 69.1 percent in July 2022
  • This constitutes a jump of 7.4 points from the June reading of 61.7
  • With this increase, the Transportation Capacity index reached a new 3-year high
• The Transportation Capacity expansion can be observed across the supply chain, with the Upstream index indicating 70.1 and Downstream index indicating 67.6

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index read 49.5 in July 2022, down (11.8) from June’s reading of 61.3, pushing the Transportation Prices Index into contraction territory for the first time in two years
• The price index drop is slightly more pronounced for Upstream supply chain firms, with the Upstream price index at 47.8, Downstream respondents continue to see growth at a rate of 54.3
• LMI committee will continue to watch this space to determine whether this late July surge was an aberration, or a sign of breaking from the usual July doldrums and peak season coming over the horizon

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. The calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

 

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 11.6 percent year-over-year in June to 165.7 after rising 13.2 percent year-over-year in May
• After the recent truckload rate cycle, the market balance has shifted, with capacity now growing and demand falling, which will limit further upside in the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index and likely press it lower in the coming months

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.7 percent in June after rising 0.3 percent in May
  • In June, the index equaled 120.1 (2015=100) versus 116.9 in May
• “June’s jump tells me a couple of things: first, the transition in the freight market from spot back to contract continues. ATA’s tonnage index is dominated by contract freight, so while the spot market has slowed as freight softens, contract carriers are backfilling those losses with loads from shippers reducing spot market exposure,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Essentially, the market is transitioning back to pre-pandemic shares of contract versus spot market. Second, and perhaps equally important, while economic growth is expected to be soft overall in the second quarter, the goods-economy wasn’t as bad as feared,” he said.
• Compared with June 2021, the SA index increased 7.9 percent, which was the tenth straight year-over-year gain and the largest since June 2018
• In May, the index was up 3.5 percent from a year earlier
• During the third quarter, the index rose 1.1 percent from the previous quarter and 4.6 percent from the same quarter in 2021
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 124.5 in June, 4.2 percent above the May level (119.5)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 3.84 in July, a trend that has been nearly uninterrupted since the beginning of the year
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for a sixth consecutive month with spot and contracted registering at $2.64 and $3.21 respectively
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was down 1 percent at the end of July

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in all five tracked regions

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a factor of the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
• Additionally, many carriers took steps to maintain competitive pricing to ensure that, as TL rates decline, the build-up in volume seen over the past 2 years does not move in the opposite direction
• Labor availability continues to be a challenge
  • While driver recruitment and retention improved markedly, there is still some ground to cover in order to bring drivel levels in line with demand exhibited by freight moving through networks
  • Also, nearly all of the major LTL providers continue to struggle with adequate staffing levels at terminals across their networks
  • This factor negatively impacts published transit times as carriers resort to less direct routes from origin to destination terminals
• Of note is the large change underway at Yellow Corp.
  • The company is in the process of consolidating its four operating company networks into one network with national and regional coverage
  • The first phase of the project, known as One Yellow, will be completed later this summer with the integration of the Reddaway western network
  • The entire revamp is set to be completed by the end of 2022
• All the top LTL carriers are executing on expansion and operational rationalization plans moving in the second half of 2022, signaling that cost performance and EBITDA will continue to be the main focus of the segment

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
  • Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

 

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on June 29
  • The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased
  • Nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and residential fixed investment increased
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 8.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021
  • The PCE price index increased 7.1 percent, compared with an increase of 6.4 percent in Q4 2021
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 5.2 percent, compared to an increase of 5.0 percent in Q4 2021

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items Consumer Price Index – a measure of the general level of inflation in the US economy – increased 9.1 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1981
  • The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food being the largest contributors
  • The energy index rose 7.5 percent over the month of June and contributed nearly half of the all items increase, with the gasoline index rising 11.2 percent and the other major component indexes also rising
• The all items less food and energy index rose 5.9 percent over the last 12 months
• The energy index rose 41.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1980
• The food index increased 10.4 percent for the 12-months ending June, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1981

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 8
• Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.589M in June from 1.585M in May, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment increased sharply to 1.597M in June from 1.576M in May, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent was little changed over the month and remains below the February 2020 value of 63.4 percent

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in May, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $8.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $543.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on July 5^th
  • This followed a 0.7 percent April increase
• Shipments, up twenty-four of the last twenty-five months, increased $9.9 billion or 1.8 percent to $544.4 billion
  • This followed a 0.6 percent April increase
• Unfilled orders, up twenty-one consecutive months, increased $3.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,110 billion
  • This followed a 0.5 percent April increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.98, down from 6.05 in April
• Inventories, up twenty-one of the last twenty-two months, increased $10 billion or 1.3 percent to $797.9 billion.
  • This followed a 0.8 percent April increase
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.47, unchanged from April

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• US orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.5 percent in May, after a 0.3 percent rise in April and above a forecast of 0.3 percent

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $73.55 billion in May from $73.11 billion in April

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• Please note, following a hardware failure, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has not published on-highway diesel prices since the week of 6/13; the below numbers are reflective of the latest figures available
• The national average price of diesel for the week of 6/13 stood at $5.72 per gallon, an increase of 11 cents from the same period in May
• Trucking’s main fuel now costs approximately $2.43 – or 74 percent – more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The June Manufacturing PMI registered 53 percent, down 3.1 percentage point from the reading of 56.1 percent in May
  • This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 25th month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020
  • This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading since June 2020, when it registered 52.4 percent

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 61.7 percent in June 2022
  • This constitutes a jump of 3 percentage points from the May reading of 64.7
  • Despite the overall decrease, the transportation capacity index remains above 50, indicating expansion
  • The Transportation Capacity expansion can be observed across the supply chain, with the upstream index registering at 60.6 and downstream index at 63.8

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index registered 61.3 percent in June 2022
  • This corresponds to a decrease of 4 percent from the May reading of 65.3
  • While the index remains above 50, indicating that prices are still increasing, this is the third consecutive decline in the Transportation Prices index, pushing it lower than at any point in the past two years
  • The downward trend in price pressure continues to be observed across the supply chains, with upstream price index at 63.4 and downstream price index at 60.0

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 13.2 percent year-over-year in May to 168.6 after rising 14.1 percent year-over-year in April
• While truckload rates have had an extraordinary cycle, the key leading indicators have fallen sharply over the past few months, which Cass analysts expect to limit further upside in the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index and change its trajectory in the coming months
• With the large declines in spot rates coming just ahead of the big spring contract season, the lead time between spot and contract may be compressed somewhat

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.5 percent in May after falling 1.4 percent in April
  • In May, the index equaled 117.1 (2015=100) versus 116.5 in April
• “The transition in the freight market continued in May with the index hitting the second highest level since the pandemic started. Specifically, on the market transition, ATA’s tonnage index is dominated by contract freight. The traditional spot market has slowed as freight softens, but these contract carriers are backfilling any losses in freight with loads from shippers that are reducing spot market exposure,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Essentially the market is transitioning back to pre-pandemic shares of contract versus spot market. Overall, economic indicators that are important to trucking slowed in May, including retail sales, housing starts, and manufacturing output,” he said.
• Compared with May 2021, the SA index increased 3.7 percent, which was the ninth straight year-over-year gain and the largest since April 2021
  • In April, the index was up 2.5 percent from a year earlier
  • In 2022, year-to-date and compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 2.7 percent
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 119.7 in May, 4.2 percent above the April level (114.8)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 3.88 in June
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for a fifth consecutive month
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was at 1 percent at the end of June compared to 2 percent at the end of May

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in four of five regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a factor of the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
• Carriers are increasingly purging palletizable freight from their networks, signaling a continuation of overall network rationalization and pricing discipline that became a prominent feature in 2021
• There are some areas of improvement where carriers have made concerted efforts:
  • For the first time since 2018, the number of terminals increased (2.8%)

Source: Stifel & ATA

• Active LTL capacity is at the highest level in the last decade

Source: Stifel & ATA

• These are positive trends, but structural capacity still lags long term demand especially in light of supply chain shifts vis a vis nearshoring, increase in e-commerce, and the need to support low-latency omnichannel inventories
  • The overall trend of lane and vector-based rate increases are continuing across the entire carrier base with variability in percentage increase of low-20 to mid-30s

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• One of the biggest stories in the latter half of Q1 and into Q2 continues to be the state of freight transportation capacity
• Overall, labor is expanding (based on the latest numbers from the BLS), inflation continues to expand and may negatively impact demand, and loads posted to DAT are down 7.4% underlining that the TL spot market is quickly cooling off as more carriers transition to contracted and dedicated business, while other modes (bulk and LTL) are operating at historically elevated rates with no abatement in sight as demand remains strong with continued constrained capacity
• The industry is beginning to see some consolidation with carriers making strategic purchases of sound businesses that add to gaps in ability to service customer networks, as is the case with the recent Schneider National’s acquisition of deBoer Transportation, a regional carrier based in Wisconsin, which follows Heartland Express’s purchase of Pennsylvania-based Smith Transport; more acquisitions are expected as smaller carriers come under financial pressure
• US retailers project near-record import volumes for this summer and into fall, warning that already-stressed ports and inland supply chains should prepare for continued challenges through the peak shipping season with the back-to-school supplies arriving earlier than usual and holiday merchandise quickly replacing these volumes into the latter half of summer
• While the spot market stabilized in the last two weeks after four months of steady declines, it is uncertain whether the market will maintain this bottom after the Independence Day (July 4) holiday in the US
• Odyssey TL Procurement team conducted a number of targeted RFPs to improve contracted rates, increase overall routed carrier acceptance rates, and create more favorable conditions for on-time performance

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annualized Growth Rate (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on May 26
• The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 8.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021
  • The PCE price index increased 7.0 percent, compared with an increase of 6.4 percent in Q4 2021
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 5.1 percent, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in Q4 2021

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981
  • The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest contributors
• After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing
  • The energy index rose 34.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005
• The food index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent
  • The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 3
  • Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing
  • Employment in retail trade declined

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.581M in May from 1.568M in April, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment increased to 1.572M in May from 1.549M in April, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

• Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.3 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.1 percent, were little changed over the month
  • Both measures are 1.1 percentage points and remain below their February 2020 values

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in April, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $533.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on June 2
  • This followed a 1.8 percent March increase
• Shipments, up twenty-three of the last twenty-four months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $532.1 billion
  • This followed a 2.2 percent March increase
• Unfilled orders, up twenty consecutive months, increased $6.0 billion or 0.5 percent to $1,106.8 billion
  • This followed a 0.5 percent March increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.07, up from 6.06 in March
• Inventories, up twenty of the last twenty-one months, increased $4.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $786.1 billion
• This followed a 1.4 percent March increase
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.48, up from 1.47 in March

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• US orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.3 percent in April, below and upwardly revised 1.1 percent rise in March and forecasts of 0.5 percent growth

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $73.15 billion in April from $72.85 billion in March

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel at the beginning of June increased by 19 cents from the same period in May, to $5.70 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data
• Trucking’s main fuel now costs $2.43 – or 74 percent – more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The May Manufacturing PMI registered 56.1 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the reading of 55.4 percent in April
  • This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 24th month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020
  • This is the second-lowest Manufacturing PMI reading since September 2020, when it registered 55.4 percent

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 64.7 percent in May 2022
  • This constitutes a jump of 7.8 percentage points from the April reading of 56.9
  • This increase continues the recent upward trend and keeps transportation capacity solidly above 50.0, indicating expansion
  • The Transportation Capacity expansion can be observed across the supply chain, with the Upstream index indicating 63.3 and Downstream index indicating 67.1

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index registered 65.3 percent in May 2022
  •  This corresponds to a drop of 8.6 percent from the April transportation prices reading of 73.9
  • While the index remains above 50, indicating that prices are still increasing, the intensity is much lower and is now approaching levels last seen two years ago
  •  If it had not been for the upturn in the back half of May, the index would have shown the first sub-60.0 reading in two years
  • Further, the downward trend in price pressure is observed across the supply chains, with upstream price index at 67.1 and downstream price index at 61.1

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 14.1 percent year-over-year in April to 167.1 after rising 14.2 percent year-over-year in March
• While truckload rates have had an extraordinary cycle, the key leading indicators have fallen sharply over the past few months, which Cass expects to limit further upside in the Truckload Linehaul Index and change its trajectory over the course of the year

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 2% in April after rising 1.8% in March
  • In April, the index equaled 115.8 (2015=100) versus 118.2 in March
• “After eight straight gains totaling 6.9%, for-hire tonnage finally slid back in April. Despite being the largest sequential drop since August 2020, the index was still above where it started in 2022 and a year earlier,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “It is important to note that ATA’s for-hire tonnage data is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads. The spot market has softened more than for-hire contract freight, as the market transitions back to pre-pandemic shares of contract versus spot market. While I expect contract freight to outperform spot market freight, the rate of growth will be slower than in 2021. Most contract carriers are still struggling with maintaining enough capacity, both equipment and drivers,” he said.
  • Compared with April 2021, the SA index increased 1.8%, which was the eighth straight year-over-year gain
  • In March, the index was up 3.3% from a year earlier. In 2022, year-to-date and compared with same period in 2021, tonnage was up 2.3%.
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 114.1 in April, 7.4% below the March level (123.2)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio increased to 4.39 in May after three consecutive months of decline
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for a fourth consecutive month to $2.71 per mile (inclusive of fuel) from a high of $3.10 in January
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was at 2 percent at the end of May compared to 11 percent at the end of April, and marks the first time in nearly two years where replacement rates stood in the single digits

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates per mile are down in four of five regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a sticky factor of the LTL industry, it is fair to say that some of the truckload spillover will permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
  • That said, with DAT van-to-load ratio dropping to just south of 4 shipments per available trailer, the pressure on LTL is not the same as one observed in 2021
• Carriers are increasingly purging palletizable freight from their networks, signaling a continuation of overall network rationalization and pricing discipline that became a prominent feature in 2021
• There are some areas of improvement where carriers have made concerted efforts:
  • For the first time since 2018, the number of terminals increased (2.8%)

Source: Stifel & ATA

• Active LTL capacity is at the highest level in the last decade

Source: Stifel & ATA

• These are positive trends, but structural capacity still lags long term demand especially in light of supply chain shifts vis a vis nearshoring, increase in e-commerce, and the need to support low-latency omnichannel inventories

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

 

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• One of the biggest stories in the latter half of Q1 and into Q2 has been the state of freight transportation capacity
  • Based on the latest numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, demand for freight beyond the truckload spot market did not collapse in April. The employment situation highlighted that new hires were needed to haul freight that continues to land at US ports and leave factories and warehouses amid ongoing labor shortages and supply chain disruption
  • The increase exceeded expectations that were dampened by flagging freight demand in the truckload spot market. However, shippers have been moving freight to the now higher-priced contract market to get capacity commitments from trucking partners. The strong jump in real, not-seasonally-adjusted employment numbers may be one indicator of that shift of freight back to contract carriers
  • Some of the owner-operators that entered the market in 2021 may be returning to contract carriers. Lower spot rates usually lead drivers with smaller companies to seek employment with larger firms

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annual GDP Growth (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 28. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent
• The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased
  • The increase in PCE reflected an increase in services (led by health care) that was partly offset by a decrease in goods
  • Within goods, a decrease in nondurable goods (led by gasoline and other energy goods) was partly offset by an increase in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts)
  • The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 7.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 5.2 percent
• GDP from manufacturing increased to $2.38 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021 (the latest figures available and released by the BEA), up from $2.32 trillion in the third quarter of 2021

Quarterly GDP from Manufacturing (Billions of Dollars)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase
  • The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent
  • The energy index declined in April after rising in recent months
  • The index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in April following a 0.3-percent advance in March
  • Along with indexes for shelter, airline fares, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April
  • The indexes for apparel, communication, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month
• The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March
  • The all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months
  • The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

 

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate
• was unchanged at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 6th
  • Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.564M in April from 1.551M in March, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment increased to 1.547M in April from 1.533M in March, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

• Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, were little changed over the month
• However, these measures are each 1.2 percentage points below their February 2020 values

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in March, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $11.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $557.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on May 3
  • This followed a 0.1 percent February increase
• Shipments, also up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $12.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $556.4 billion
  • This followed a 1.1 percent February increase
• Unfilled orders, up fourteen consecutive months, increased $5.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,294.8 billion
  • This followed a 0.5 percent February increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.72, down from 6.74 in February
• Inventories, up twenty-one of the last twenty-two months, increased $10.4 billion or 1.3 percent to $797.6 billion
• This followed a 0.9 percent February increase
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.43, down from 1.45 in February

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• US orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 1.2 percent in March, following an downwardly revised 2.1 percent drop in February

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Percent Change)

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $81.11 billion in March from $80.10 billion in February

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel at the beginning of May increased by 48 cents from the same period in April, to $5.62 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data
• Trucking’s main fuel now costs $2.43 – or 76 percent – more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The April Manufacturing PMI registered 55.4 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the March reading of 57.1 percent; this is the lowest reading since July 2020 (53.9 percent)
• This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 23rd month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020
• The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment
• In April, progress slowed in solving labor shortage problems at all tiers of the supply chain

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered at 56.9 in April 2022
  • This constitutes a substantial jump of 11.2 percentage points from the March reading of 45.7 and moves the Transportation Capacity Index over the critical 50.0 threshold, into expansion territory
  • This is the first month with an expansion since May 2020
  • The index is even higher for Upstream firms at 59.1, while the Downstream average is only 53.8
  • The trendline now takes a marked U-shape, as capacity increases in April 2022 begin to resemble growth rates during the early stages of lockdown in April 2020

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index registered at 73.9 in April 2022
  • This corresponds to a decrease of 15.8 points from the March reading of 89.7
  • This is the second largest drop in Transportation Prices in the history of the index
    • Only the 27.9-point decrease in April 2020 – the month the U.S. shut down due to COVID – was greater
• While the index remains above 50, indicating that prices are still increasing, the intensity is much lower than anytime in the past 1.5 years
• Further, the decrease in price pressure is across the supply chains, with upstream price index at 73.8 and downstream price index at 75.4

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. Calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 14.2 percent year-over-year in March to 163.4 after rising 12.7 percent year-over-year in February to 158.0
• Cass recently refined the dataset to improve its reflection of the market, and the March increase is consistent with other contract rate sources
• Just as the Index is catching up, the key leading indicators from the truckload spot market have fallen sharply over the past several weeks, which is expected to limit further upside in the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
  • Normal contract timing would suggest there’s room for the Index to continue to rise for a few more months after the peak in spot rates

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.4 percent in March after rising 0.7 percent in February
  • In March, the index equaled 118.8 versus 116.1 in February
• “It is important to note that ATA’s for-hire tonnage data is dominated by contract freight with minimal amounts of spot market loads,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “And clearly contract freight was solid in March, witnessing the largest sequential gain since May 2020. March was also the eighth straight month-to-month improvement, with a total increase of 7.4 percent over that period. During the first quarter, the index rose 2.4 percent from the final quarter of 2021 and increased 2.6 percent from a year earlier. While there might be some recent softness in the spot market, for-hire contract freight tonnage remains solid and is only limited by lack of capacity—both drivers and equipment—at contract fleets.”
  • February’s increase was revised higher from our March 22 press release
• Compared with March 2021, the SA index increased 3.8 percent, which was the seventh straight year-over-year gain and the largest over that period
  • In February, the index was up 3.2 percent from a year earlier
  • In 2022, year-to-date and compared with the same period in 2021, tonnage was up 2.6 percent
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 123.9 in March, 17.9 percent above the February level (105.1)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased for a third consecutive month to 3.42 in April
• National average spot and contracted rates continued to diverge with spot rates declining for a third consecutive month to $2.80 per mile (inclusive of fuel) from a high of $3.10 in January
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was at 11 percent at the end of April compared to 15 percent at the end of March

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates are down across all regions:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a sticky factor of the LTL industry, it is fair to say that some of the truckload spillover will permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
  • That said, with DAT van-to-load ratio dropping to just south of 4 shipments per available trailer, the pressure on LTL is not the same as one observed in 2021
• Carriers are increasingly purging palletizable freight from their networks, signaling a continuation of overall network rationalization and pricing discipline that became a prominent feature in 2021
• There are some areas of improvement where carriers have made concerted efforts:
  • For the first time since 2018, the number of terminals increased (2.8%)

Source: Stifel & ATA

• Active LTL capacity is at the highest level in the last decade

Source: Stifel & ATA

• These are positive trends, but structural capacity still lags long term demand especially in light of supply chain shifts vis a vis nearshoring, increase in e-commerce, and the need to support low-latency omnichannel inventories

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• Many logistics and supply chain publications have been noting a change in the market for freight transportation, speculating that we may be observing a normalization of capacity and prices
  • Odyssey is cautious about these changes as the rate of change is quite small. Additionally, the underlying economics of operations have changed as the cost of driver retention has risen
  • The PMI noted that there is a continued, elevated levels to logistics and transportation costs that are now largely driven by inventory carrying costs as shippers are pulling forward orders in anticipation of labor-related disruptions at the ports in the summer of 2022. As these inventories are released, there will be an increase in demand for freight transportation and it remains to be seen how this will reflect in the cost of haul
  • Another source of uncertainty is the level of output and shipping from China. Depending on what unfolds in the coming months, continued shutdowns or reopening will have a material impact to demand for freight transportation
  • Odyssey is closely watching the market and related metrics and will coordinate the timing of beneficial procurement activities

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
• Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annual GDP Growth (Percent Change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on March 30. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent. The downward revision primarily reflected downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to private inventory investment
• The increase in private inventory investment was led by retail and wholesale trade industries
• The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services
• The increase in exports of goods was widespread, and the leading contributors were consumer goods, foods, feeds, and beverages, as well as industrial supplies and materials
• The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter
  • The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.6 percent
• GDP from manufacturing increased to $2.38 trillion in the fourth quarter (the latest figures available and released by the BEA), up from $2.32 trillion in the third quarter

Quarterly GDP from Manufacturing (Billions of Dollars)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Inflation

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The 12-month increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period ending January 1982
  • The all items less food and energy index rose 6.4 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982
  • The energy index rose 25.6 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending July 1981
• The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 10
  • Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase
  • The gasoline index rose 6.6 percent in February and accounted for almost a third of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes were mixed
  • The food index rose 1.0 percent as the food at home index rose 1.4 percent; both were the largest monthly increases since April 2020
  • The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February following a 0.6-percent increase the prior month

Inflation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on April 1
• Notable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing

Unemployment Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment decreased to 1.551M in March from 1.556 in February, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment decreased to 1.539M in March from 1.545M in February, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck Employment-Not Seasonally Adjusted (Thousands of Persons)

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, changed little in March
• The employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 60.1 percent
• Both measures remain below their February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively)

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

New Orders

• New orders for manufactured goods in February, down following nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $542.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on April 4
  • This followed a 1.5 percent January increase
• Shipments, up twenty-one of the last twenty-two months, increased $3.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $541.0 billion
  • This followed a 1.4 percent January increase
• Unfilled orders, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $5.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,288.5 billion
  • This followed a 0.9 percent January increase
• The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.74, up from 6.72 in January
• Inventories, up twenty of the last twenty-one months, increased $5.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $785.2 billion
  • This followed a 0.8 percent January increase
• The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, unchanged from January

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• US orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, decreased 0.3 percent in February, following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent gain in January, and missing market expectations of a 0.5 percent rise

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

• On a dollar basis, orders decreased to $80.10 billion in February from $80.29 billion in January

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (Millions of Dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (Dollars Per Gallon)

 

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel at the beginning of April increased by 29 cents from the same period in March, to $5.14 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data
• Trucking’s main fuel now costs $2 or 64 percent more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

The purchasing managers index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designate an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment. The March manufacturing PMI registered 57.1 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 58.6 percent
  • This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 22nd month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020. This is the lowest reading since September 2020 (55.4 percent)
• Progress was made to solve the labor shortage problems at all tiers of the supply chain, which will result in improved factory throughput and supplier deliveries
• ISM panelists reported lower rates of quits and early retirements compared to previous months, as well as improving internal and supplier labor positions
• March brought back increasing rates of price expansion, due primarily to instability in global energy markets

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The transportation capacity index registered 45.7 in March 2022
  • This constitutes a small increase (1.3) from the February reading of 44.4
  • This marks a return to the recent upward trend in transportation capacity but the index remains under the critical 50 threshold
• The future transportation capacity index is 50.9, down (-8.1) from February’s future prediction of 59.0
  • This suggests a rate of growth that is essentially neutral – not much capacity is predicted to come online, but we are not predicted to lose any either
  • The future transportation capacity metric will be the one PMI will watch most closely in April, as it is likely to be among the first to demonstrate any concrete signs of softening in the freight market

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The transportation prices index registered 89.7 percent in March 2022, up slightly (+0.7) from February’s reading of 89.0
• While some signs are pointing toward a receding of freight prices, as of March they have not yet fully materialized
• With the rates of growth and overall price observed over the last 18 months, decreasing Transportation Prices could offer some relief to businesses and consumers
  • The key is whether the potential drop in cost leads to relief, or an actual contraction. Currently, price growth is still strong​
• The future index for transportation prices indicates a value of 78.6, which is down (-3.2) from February’s future prediction of 81.8
  • Expectations of continued transportation price increases for the next 12 months remain quite strong, with the future index well above the critical level of 50 which indicates expansion
  • The price increase expectations are slightly higher for Upstream firms (79.9) than for Downstream firms (75.0)

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass truckload linehaul index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. The calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass truckload linehaul index rose 12.6 percent year-over-year in February after an upwardly revised 12.8 percent year-over-year increase in January to 158.0
• Cass estimates a 3 percent downward impact from longer length of haul (due to mode shift from rail to truck) on the Cass truckload linehaul index
  • Adjusting for both sets of rates – Cass and public truckload carriers – are rising in the mid-to high-teens percentages in early 2022
• Excess miles, rising fuel surcharges, and accessorial fees are all factors that are not reflected in the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
  • The increase in total truckload cost, depending on how these factors progress, is between the 13 percent year-over-year increase in the Cass truckload linehaul index and the 37 percent year-over-year increase in the inferred rate (which is a mix of all domestic modes)
• Strong freight demand and significant capacity limitations are continuing to press truckload rates higher
  • As intermodal network congestion gradually eases throughout 2022, a reversal to shorter length of haul will likely add upward pressure to this index above and beyond market rate increases

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s for-hire truck tonnage index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) for-hire truck tonnage index was unchanged in February after increasing 0.4 percent in January. In February, the index equaled 115.3 the same as January
• “February was the first month that the index didn’t increase since July,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Despite a string of gains, the index is still off 1.8 percent from March 2020. The index is also off 4.2 percent from the all-time high in August 2019. It is important to note that ATA’s data is dominated by contract freight, not spot market. Demand for trucking freight services remains strong, but for-hire contract carriers are capacity constrained due to the driver and equipment markets. The spot market has been surging as these carriers can’t haul all of the freight they are asked to move. So the fact that the tonnage index hasn’t fully recovered is a supply problem, not a lack of demand. Other ATA data shows that for-hire carriers are operating around 7 percent fewer trucks, both company and independent contractor equipment, than prior to the pandemic.”
• January’s increase was revised down slightly from our February 22 press release
• Compared with February 2021, the SA index increased 2.4 percent, which was the sixth straight year-over-year gain and the largest over that period. In January, the index was up 0.9 percent from a year earlier
• In 2022, year-to-date and compared with same period in 2021, tonnage was up 1.7 percent
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 104.3 in February, 4.3 percent below the January level (109)

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 4.57 in March after registering at 7.33 in February
• National average spot and contracted rates began to converge in February, and the two trended inverse with average contracted and spot rates recording $3.23 and $3.03 respectively
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was at 15 percent at the end of March compared to 17 percent at the end of February

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

DAT’s average outbound dry van rates are down across all regions except for Southwest, where they increased, and Southeast, where they remained relatively flat:

Source: DAT Freight

LTL Update

• With the increase in shipment sizes appearing to remain a sticky factor in the LTL industry, some of the truckload spillover may permanently convert to LTL, boosting overall throughput
  • That said, with DAT van-to-load ratio dropping to just north of 4 shipments per available trailer, the pressure on LTL is not the same as one observed in 2021
• Carriers are increasingly purging palletizable freight from their networks, signaling a continuation of overall network rationalization and pricing discipline that became a prominent feature in 2021
• There are some areas of improvement where carriers have made concerted efforts:
  • For the first time since 2018, the number of terminals increased (2.8%)

Source: Stifel & ATA

• Active LTL capacity is at the highest level in the last decade

Source: Stifel & ATA

• These are positive trends, but structural capacity still lags long term demand especially in light of supply chain shifts vis a vis nearshoring, increase in e-commerce, and the need to support low-latency omnichannel inventories

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ODYSSEY NETWORK UPDATE

Note: All metrics are inclusive of TL/IM and Bulk only

• One of the biggest events to dominate the industry’s attention is the pace of increase in the price of fuel. The increase is largely associated with the conflict in Eastern Europe and the resultant uncertainty in oil production created by the ever-changing situation
  • Currently, there is no shortage of oil. The most recent output figures move between 75M and 78M barrels per day, and have historically been influenced by the complex economics of oil price and planned production

World Daily Oil Production (millions of barrels per day)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The recent run-up in prices is an outcome of anticipatory price movements. These can be observed in the pricing-in of expectations reflected in oil futures
• WTI crude futures traded at north of $115 per barrel and as high as $121 but have declined to $109 per barrel on March 11 and were on track for their biggest weekly drop since November, as investors weighed escalating bans on Russian oil against efforts to bring more supply to the market from other major producers

WTI Crude Futures (USD Price Per Barrel)

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

• The situation remains highly dynamic and will continue to price in sensitivity of the overall market and its response to the conflict in Ukraine
• Odyssey clients and carriers that use the Odyssey fuel schedule in their carrier contracts can expect to see an increase of 0.5 percent in the fuel surcharge for every 10-cent increase in the cost of fuel
  • Truckload: fuel surcharge based on per mile rate
  • Less-than-Truckload: fuel surcharge based on the percentage of the base rate
  • Bulk: fuel surcharge based on a percentage of the base rate
• Weekly movement in the price of fuel in the US may be found by tracking rates published by the US Energy Information Administration: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
• With inflation continuing to dominate headlines for the economy as a whole, dry van replacement rate – increase in contracted rates that are expiring – continues to hover in the mid-teens
• Over the last 3 months, the Odyssey Client Services team has been reengineering the monthly performance meeting with the goal of standardizing our engagement across clients

Shipper Actions

In today’s competitive environment, becoming a preferred shipper to carriers can help improve attaining sufficient capacity. Things that shippers offer that help reach this status can include:

Accuracy:

• Forecast for the end of month/end of quarter – plan for surges in your needs to assure coverage
• Develop order lead time – at least 5 days in advance. ask carriers for “best case” options

Specificity:

• Request delivery windows from customers…often 8 a.m. deliveries are requested when product really isn’t need until much later. A window of 8-10 a.m. may have a better chance of coverage.
• Spread delivery times our across the day
• Assess what your customers really need. Make sure that customer delivery requirements are up to date and accurate
  • Don’t over-require equipment/assessorials that aren’t needed

Flexibility:

• Offer flexible load times
• Explore/ be open to mode options including intermodal

Driver-friendliness:

• Load/unload within the normal 2 hours-time is money to drivers
• Provide creature comforts (clean restrooms, rest areas, free Wi-Fi, a cup of coffee, etc.)

Consistency:

• Offer consistent volume that carriers can plan against
• Reduce order changes – a new date may put coverage at risk

Efficiency:

• Maximize payload on trucks
• Utilize trailer drop yards at high volume origins when possible
• Prioritize loading/unloading trucks quickly at facilities

Promptness:

• Pay carriers within their contracted freight terms- cash flow is vital to carriers

 

ECONOMIC UPDATE

GDP

Annual GDP Growth (percent change

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 24. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.3 percent
• The latest estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month
  • In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.9 percent
  • The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
• Current dollar GDP increased 14.6 percent at an annual rate, or $806.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $24.01 trillion
  • In the third quarter, GDP increased 8.4 percent, or $461.3 billion
• The price index for gross domestic purchases – BEA’s featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy – increased 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point
  • The PCE price index increased 6.3 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point
  • Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 5.0 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point
• GDP from manufacturing decreased to $2.320 trillion in the third quarter (the latest figures available and released by the BEA), down from $2.329 trillion in the second quarter

Quarterly GDP from Manufacturing (billions of dollars)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.9 percent before seasonal adjustment
  • The 12-month increase has been steadily rising and is now the largest since the period ending January 1982
  • The all items less food and energy index rose 6.4 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982
  • The energy index rose 25.6 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending July 1981
• The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 10
  • Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted items increase
  • The gasoline index rose 6.6 percent in February and accounted for almost a third of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes were mixed
  • The food index rose 1.0 percent as the food at home index rose 1.4 percent; both were the largest monthly increases since April 2020
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February following a 0.6-percent increase the prior month

Inflation Rate (percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 4
• Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction

Unemployment Rate (percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Truck employment increased to 1.549M in February from 1.544 in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Truck employment increased to 1.533M in February from 1.530M in January, on a not-seasonally adjusted basis

U.S. Truck employment-not seasonally adjusted (thousands of persons

• The labor force participation rate, at 62.3 percent in February, changed little over the month
• The employment-population ratio edged up to 59.9 percent
• Both measures remain below their February 2020 levels (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively)

Labor Force Participation Rate (percentage)

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

• New orders for manufactured goods in January, up twenty of the last twenty-one months, increased $7.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $544.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on March 3
  • This followed a 0.7 percent December increase
• Shipments, also up twenty of the last twenty-one months, increased $6.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $536.9 billion
  • This followed a 0.7 percent December increase
• Unfilled orders, up twelve consecutive months, increased $11.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $1,283.5 billion
  • This followed a 0.8 percent December increase
  • The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.74, down from 6.80 in December
• Inventories, up nineteen of the last twenty months, increased $5.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $779.6 billion
  • This followed a 0.4 percent December increase
  • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in December

New Orders for Manufactured Goods (Percent Change)

Source: US Census Bureau

• US orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.9 percent in January of 2022, marginally faster than a 0.4 percent gain in December of 2021

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (millions of dollars

Source: US Census Bureau

• On a dollar basis, orders increased to $80.14 billion in January from $79.31 billion in December

Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft (millions of dollars)

Source: US Census Bureau

Fuel

On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (dollars per gallon)

Source: US Energy Information Administration

• The national average price of diesel at the beginning of March increased by 90 cents from the same period in February, to $4.85 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly data
• Trucking’s main fuel now costs $1.71 or 55 percent more than a year ago

Purchasing Managers Index

Source: ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI. A PMI above 50 designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

• The February Manufacturing PMI registered 58.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the January reading of 57.6 percent
  • This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 21st month in a row after a contraction in April and May 2020
• The U.S. manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment
• The COVID-19 omicron variant remained an impact in February; however, there were signs of relief, with recovery expected in March
• A higher-than-normal quit rate and early retirements continued, presenting companies in every industry with an ongoing challenge to fill openings

Logistics Managers’ Index

Transportation Capacity

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Capacity Index registered 44.4 point in February 2022
  • This constitutes a small decrease (-0.4) from the January reading of 44.8, and breaks the recent upward trend in Transportation Capacity but the index remains under the critical 50 threshold
• Upstream firms are not actually observing any contraction in available capacity (a first in over a year in a half), sitting right at 50.0
  • Downstream firms are seeing continued rates of contraction
• The future Transportation Capacity Index decreased slightly from the previous reading, and it indicates 59.0 for the next year
  • Expectations of expanding transportation capacity for the next 12 months continue
  • The expectation of increases in Transportation Capacity are still stronger for upstream firms, where the future Transportation Capacity index is registering 61.6 while this index is only 55.4 for downstream firms

Transportation Prices

Source: CSCMP LMI

• The Transportation Prices Index registered 89.0 points in February 2022
  • This corresponds to a small increase (+0.3) from the January reading of 88.7
• The price pressure is higher for downstream firms where the index is registering 90.2
  • The data indicates very broad and very strong upward pressure on transportation prices across the supply chains
• The future index for transportation prices indicates a value of 81.8
  • The expectations of continued transportation price increases for the next 12 months remain strong, with the future index well above the critical level of 50.0 which indicates expansion
  • The price increase expectations are slightly higher for upstream firms (index is at 83.6) than for downstream firms (index is at 80.4)

TRANSPORTATION UPDATE

Cass Truckload Index

Source: Cass

Source: Cass

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index is a measure of market fluctuations in per-mile truckload linehaul rates, independent of additional cost components such as fuel and accessorials. The calculation methodology for the index was developed by the University of Tennessee’s Global Supply Chain Institute in collaboration with Cass.

• The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 2.2 points in January to 150.2 from 148.0 in December, up 1.5 percent month-over-month and up just 7.2 percent year-over-year, slower than the 8.0 percent increase in December
  • This data series trends below the 20 percent increases in public TL fleet per-mile rates due in part to a large increase in length of haul (LOH) resulting from rail service issues pressing longer-haul shipments onto the highways
  • Accessorial fees (not included in the index) also explain part of the difference
  • Cass estimates a 3 percent mix effect from longer LOH in January, which reduces the rate per mile even as cost per shipment rises
• Strong freight demand and tight capacity are continuing to place upward pressure on the index
• As intermodal network congestion gradually eases over the course of 2022, a reversal to shorter LOH will likely add upward pressure to the index above and beyond market rate increases

ATA Truck Tonnage Index

In calculating the index, 100 represents 2015. ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index is dominated by contract freight as opposed to spot market freight.

• American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in January after increasing 0.9 percent in December
• “January’s gain was the sixth straight totaling 4.4 percent,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The index, which is dominated by contract freight with only small amounts of spot market truck freight, is off 3.9 percent from the all-time high in August 2019 and only 1.5 percent below March 2020 when the pandemic hit. In January, truck tonnage was helped by rising retail sales and factory output. While housing starts fell last month, which is another important driver of truck tonnage, it remained at high levels.”
• Compared with January 2021, the SA index increased 1.2%, which was the fifth straight year-over-year gain
  • In December, the index was up 1.5 percent from a year earlier
  • In 2021, compared with the average in 2020, tonnage was up 0.3 percent
  • In 2020, tonnage was off 4 percent compared with 2019
• The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 109.2 in January, 4.3 percent below the December level (114.1)
• The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Truck Tonnage Index – which closely tracks the ATA Index – recorded a similar performance increasing to 115.7 in January 2022 from 114.9 in December 2021

Truck Tonnage Index

Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statics

DAT Freight Summary

• DAT’s van load-to-truck ratio decreased to 7.33 in February after registering at 9.34 in January
• National average spot and contracted rates converged in February as average contracted rates increased to $3.06 from $2.98 in January
• Truckload replacement rate – a measure of percent change to expiring contracted rates – was at 17 percent at the end of February compared to 20 percent at the end of January

Source: DAT Freight

Source: DAT Freight

• DAT’s average outbound dry van rates saw a small increase from November to December (there was no change in SW):

Source: DAT Freight

• LTL carriers continued to adopt strict pricing discipline and tighten their cash cycles with national and regional carriers implementing general rate increases that have ranged from 5 to 7 percent
  • This is a trend that will continue throughout 2022 as carriers – particularly public issuers – continue a heavy focus on operating ratios
• With DAT van-to-load ratio north of 9 and TL replacement rate closing January at 20 percent, it is anticipated that LTL carriers will continue to see an increasing amount of volume and tonnage moving through their networks
• Another anticipated trend will be temporary embargoes as the sector – like all other parts of the economy – struggles with illness-related worker absenteeism and reshuffling of labor as the labor force continues to seek new opportunities in pursuit of higher pay and better benefits
• Construction, a primary source of job competition for freight transportation, has seen payrolls snap back quickly and growth is unlikely to abate as infrastructure spending ramps up
• However, there are areas of improvement where carriers have made concerted efforts:
  • For the first time since 2018, the number of terminals increased (2.8%)

Source: Stifel & ATA

• Active LTL capacity is at the highest level in the last decade

Source: Stifel & ATA

• While these developments will not translate into lower cost of shipping LTL freight, they are indicators of expanding capacity for freight that continues to be rejected on the TL side albeit at slightly lower rates than observed over the past three months and below the 20 to 25 percent average seen in the 2020 and 2021 freight volume ramp-up

Source: FreightWaves Sonar